GDP Growth: Is Latest Corona pandemic fear real?

Corona Virus

World Health Organisation (WHO) defines pandemic as a worldwide spread of a new disease. Currently Corona virus is considered as epidemic. As of WHO data on 27 Feb , 46 countries have recorded confirmed case or cases of Corona virus.

Let’s have look on past pandemic and how it affected regional and/or global economy.

1918Spanish flu influenza pandemic20 million–100 million deathsGDP loss of 3 percent in Australia, 15 percent in Canada, 17 percent in the United Kingdom, 11 percent in the United States
1957Asian flu influenza pandemic0.7 million–1.5 million deaths GDP loss of 3 percent in Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States
1968Hong Kong flu influenza pandemic1 million deathsUS$23 billion–US$26 billion direct and indirect costs in the United States 
1981HIV/AIDS pandemicMore than 70 million infections, 36.7 million deaths2–4 percent annual loss of GDP growth in Africa
2003SARS pandemic8,098 possible cases, deathsGDP loss of US$4 billion in Hong Kong SAR, China; US$3 billion–US$6 billion in Canada; and US$5 billion in Singapore
2009Swine flu influenza pandemic151,700–575,500 deaths GDP loss of US$1 billion in the Republic of Korea
2015Zika virus pandemic2,656 reported cases of microcephaly or central nervous system malformation US$7 billion–US$18 billion loss in Latin America and the Caribbean
Disease Control Priorities: Improving Health and Reducing Poverty. 3rd edition.

The Corona virus pandemic may heart Global economy badly .Oxford economic have outlined two possible scenarios based on Oxford Global Economic Model: a) the pandemic is limited to Asia, and world GDP falls $0.4tn (0.5%) in 2020 b) In a global pandemic, it drops $1.1tn (1.3%).

Oxford economic in forecast said, In 2020 global growth will slow to just 2.3%, its weakest since 2009 .


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